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- 2014.03.24
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APEC 기후센터(APCC)가 2013년도 센터 주요 연구 및 국제 활동 등을 기술한 APCC 2013년도 연차보고서를 3월 발간했다.
APCC는 2005년 아시아-태평양 경제협력체의 합의에 의해 설립된 이래, 아·태 지역의 국가 및 사회 조직이 기후 변화로 인한 위험에 효과적으로 대처하는 것을 돕고자 과학 및 기술적 협력을 강화하겠다는 미션을 가지고 이런 제반의 활동을 성공적으로 수행해 오고 있다.
2013년도에 APCC는 고품질 기후예측서비스를 한단계 발전시켜 기존 매월 3개월 계절 예측 생산 서비스를 6개월 예측을 확대하여 전지구 6개월 기후 예측 정보 서비스를 개시했다. 또한 여름철 우기/건기를 좌우하는 여름철 계절 내 진동 예측 정보를 세계 최초로 생산하고 서비스하기 시작했다. 기후정보 접근성을 개선하기 위하여 동남아시아 고해상도 기후변화 시나리오 및 장기예측 정보를 생산하는데 노력하였다. 핵심 기후-응용 융합기술 개발하고 적용하기 위하여 기후변화에 따른 아태지역 및 동남아시아 쌀 생산량을 예측하고, 기후변화에 따른 저수지 운용 방안 수립을 위한 영향 평가 연구를 추진하는 등 기후변화에 따른 분야별 융합연구에도 박차를 가하였다. 또한 지속적인 개도국 지원 사업 및 국제협력을 강화하고 활동을 실시하였다.
APCC는 앞으로도 기후예측 고도화 및 극한기후 예측 기술 기반을 구축하고, 수요기반 기후 융합기술 개발 및 활용성을 높이고 국제협력 활동을 강화하는 등 기후정보의 생산-유통-활용-서비스 체계를 지속적으로 강화해 나갈 예정이다.
APCC의 2013년도 연차보고서는 다음의 링크 페이지에서 확인할 수 있다.
☞ LINK to APCC 2013 Annual Report
http://www.apcc21.org/eng/research/pub/repo/japcc040602_lst.jsp
2013년도 주요성과 요약
Climate Prediction
Remarkable improvements in APCC’s climate prediction products were made in 2013. Firstly, APCC’s traditional 3-month operational Multi Model Ensemble seasonal forecast was extended to 6 months. Secondly, the operational Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) index forecast was started in 2013, in collaboration with the WWRP/WCRP MJO taskforce and global forecast producers. These two changes expanded APCC’s products to cover a wider range of user’s requirements from the subseasonal to seasonal time scale.
Downscaling and Enhancing Climate Predictability
One of the main gaps between climate information providers and users is the discrepancy between the scale of information that is provided and that is required. Therefore, downscaling is a key scientific and technical challenge for the application of climate information. APCC highly prioritized the improvement of downscaling and several efforts were made to this end in 2013. Dynamical downscaling experiments for the Southeast Asian region were performed to produce high-resolution climate change projection data, as well as seasonal forecast data, for that region. Southeast Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions, but thus far there has not been any high resolution dataset produced to assess the impact of future climate change at the regional level. Also, various efforts to improve the quality of climate forecasts were conducted, such as the development of a novel method for coupled pattern detection, downscaling of long lead forecast products for drought prediction, and a process-based assessment of Multi Model Ensemble seasonal forecasts.
Some initial efforts to enhance the ability to manage the vulnerability associated with high impact events were also made; the development of a hydrological drought monitoring scheme using remotely sensed data and studies to understand the mechanisms behind East Asian heat waves and to assess the seasonal predictability of tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific region are examples of such efforts.
Climate Applications
An application modeling suite for agriculture and water resource management has been set up at various scales. Global-, regional- and field-scale crop productivity modeling studies have been performed for the case of rice. In addition to the crop modeling, research to predict future crop disease and to better represent land surface processes in crop fields was also performed. In the hydrological application field, studies covered a wider range of time scales, from seasonal to climate change. Initial assessments of seasonal hydrological forecasts for several basins wer made, based on multiple climate models and multiple water balance models. In addition to these forecasts, research to understand the local hydrological impact of large-scale climate drivers, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), was performed. These two studies will be complementary in developing long-range hydrological forecasts. This type of research was also be made more effective by combining supplementary research studies, such as regionalization of hydrologic models for ungauged basins using remotely sensed data. Many such studies were also supported by the assessment and correction/downscaling of climate change scenarios from different models.
Activities and Services
Enhancing our collaborative network and capacity building are aspects that make APCC more than just a research center. The Young Scientist Support Program, which hosts young visiting scientists at APCC, was continued and three training courses with different themes and participant groups were conducted in Busan. An expert workshop on downscaling was organized to draw a better roadmap for the Center’s efforts on the issue of downscaling. The APEC Climate Symposium (APCS), which has become an important venue for interdisciplinary discussions related to climate and society, was held with the theme of drought prediction and management, inviting various players such as scientists, engineers, and policy makers. APCC continued to contribute to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Lead Centre for Long Range Forecasts Multi Model Ensemble. In addition, an international collaborative research project to develop an early warning system for fire and haze over Southeast Asia is ongoing and another project with the Cambodian Agricultural Research and Development Institute (CARDI) for better adaptation to climate change in the agriculture sector is also underway. Progress was also made in improving our online climate information systems, such as CLIK, and developing a system to provide user-oriented information.