연구보고서
- 저자
- 김광형 박사
- 작성일
- 2018.04.24
- 조회
- 395
- 요약
- 목차
This study was undertaken in 2017, as part of the project “Development of Climate Information Services in the Asia-Pacific region”, conducted by the APEC Climate Center (APCC). The project focuses on the promotion of climate services for agriculture that provide useful information for decision-making with regard to efforts towards adaptation to climate change and planning for the reduction of disaster risk in the agriculture sector in Vanuatu. The objectives of this study were to:
∙ provide background information on climate-related risks due to climate change, risks from extreme weather and climate events, and to define a baseline capacity and the needs for climate services for agriculture in Vanuatu, to increase the awareness of present and future risks, as well as to provide potential solutions to the identified risks in the agriculture sector;
∙ outline the needs and priorities of climate products and services for agricultural stakeholders in Vanuatu and enhance overall understanding of the key concepts; and
∙ suggest future development strategies for climate services for agriculture in Vanuatu to increase the climate resiliency of the agriculture sector in a sustainable manner, including a new GCF-funded project on climate information service in Vanuatu.
The general approach to the baseline assessment and identification of potential climate service solutions for the agriculture sector in Vanuatu was based on (a) a review of documents, reports, books, and surveys that described the abovementioned information and any relevant findings, and (b) interviews with national stakeholders from both the national meteorology service and the agriculture sector to identify issues related to climate change and variability, as well as extreme weather and climate events, including lessons learned from related projects and experiences, and comments on the use of climate products and services. Consultation through emails and phone calls with experts in the Secretariat of the Pacific Community, the University of South Pacific and others, was conducted to identify appropriate climate-smart practices and technologies against extreme weather and climate events, which can be implemented together with climate services recommended for Vanuatu.
Regarding the impacts of climate change, Vanuatu is one of the most vulnerable countries in the Pacific region. These impacts are evident in the multiple climate hazards that result from climate change and variability and extreme magnitude of meteorological events. To address existing climate impacts and to prepare for predicted increases in such risks in Vanuatu, it is important to establish institutional frameworks to facilitate practical application, not only of long-term climate-smart policy development and planning, but also of short-term strategic and tactical climate-smart decisions firmly based on available climate information. These frameworks need to be constantly revamped by timely, cost-effective, and scientifically sound, evidence-based, climate products and services. Such products and services should consider multiple spatial (national to local community level) and temporal (short-term to long-term, i.e., weather to climate) scales to achieve sustainable, climate resilient adaptation and associated development outcomes for all stakeholders in Vanuatu.
Readily accessible, reliable, and scientifically based climate products and services that inform relevant aspects of policy development, planning, and associated decision-making, is a critical requirement by agricultural stakeholders in Vanuatu. The climate services for agriculture need derive from baseline climate services and they need to be based on current capacity and identified needs, resulting from comprehensive analyses by relevant organizations, including the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department (VMGD) and the Ministry of Agriculture. Baseline assessment of climate service capacity, gaps, and needs have been elucidated from the multiple ground-verified reports during previous consultation workshops and meetings with key stakeholders at the national, provincial, and local community levels, and from relevant project documents.
The recommendations to address the identified gaps and needs in climate services were developed within the boundary of the Vanuatu Framework for Climate Services (VFCS). The VFCS is mainly guided by the five pillars of the GFCS strategy, namely: user interface platform; climate services information system; observations and monitoring; research, modeling and prediction; and capacity building. The most urgent needs identified through the VFCS were the development of tailored climate products (including training on their use) and the improvement and formalization of the mechanisms for communicating and spreading climate information for sector-specific applications and related sector-specific capacity building.
Subsequently, appropriate climate information products and strategies for effective climate services for agriculture were suggested, based on current baseline climate services identified in Vanuatu, especially the operational services by the VMGD, and in consideration of the existing capacity and needs of the climate service users. In this case: public and private stakeholders in the agriculture sector in Vanuatu, such as the Ministry of Agriculture, the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, the Vanuatu Agriculture Research and Technical Center, NGOs, farmer associations, commercial farmer groups, and subsistence farmers.
Climate information products that are relevant to the agriculture sector, with recommended directions for improving the quality of individual climate information products for better use by agricultural stakeholders include, agrometeorological observation networks; weather forecasts; seasonal climate outlooks; extreme weather and climate alerts; tailored information for users (farmers, extension workers, NGOs, etc.).
Strategies are discussed for the development and application of climate services that are critical to developing more effective and efficient counteracting measures to prevent and mitigate potential damage from extreme weather and climate events related to climate change and variability. Thus, improvement and formalization of mechanisms for communicating and disseminating climate products and services are included as a major strategy. Next, the need for clear processes and guidance for the operational application of climate services is discussed, together with the need for scientific evidence for decision-making, as well as the need for building end-user capacity to routinely apply climate services in decision making. Moreover, the need for a clear emphasis on the management and application of climate Information in accordance with agro-data management to achieve long-term resiliency and sustainability is also considered.
Some of the priority strategies that need to be addressed are listed below:
∙ Improvement and strengthening of agrometeorological networks
∙ Enhancement of the availability of parallel climate and agricultural data for sound, science-supported, climate services
∙ Effective monitoring and early warning of extreme weather and climate events for timely informed decision-making by agricultural stakeholders
∙ Promotion and use of weather and climate forecasts for operational, tactical, and strategic decision-making by farmers
∙ Promotion of scientific research and development for reliable, science-based climate services
∙ Improvement of the spreading mechanisms of climate services to the next-/end-users
∙ Development of climate service-based adaptation strategies to climate change and variability
In order to enhance ground applicability of the identified climate services in Vanuatu, recommendations are made on appropriate local-specific climate-smart practices and realistically applicable technologies based on information from selected climate services against extreme weather and climate events, such as drought, flooding, tropical cyclones, tsunamis, and pest and disease epidemics. Effective communication of such recommendations will enhance the use of climate services by agricultural stakeholders by showing the affordable and realistic climate-smart options that can be easily taken, upon timely detection and warning (forecasts) of extreme events in Vanuatu. The underlying principle is the basic idea that information must be relayed to facilitate informed decision-making through the availability of subsequent actionable options (or plans) by the end-users of climate services.
Decision-Making Tables for six selected staple crops in Vanuatu, manioc (cassava), taro (Colocasia spp.), taro Fiji (Xanthosoma spp.), giant taro (Alocasia spp.), kumala (sweet potato), and yam, were developed for climate-smart practices based on the ‘next 3–6 month’ seasonal rainfall forecast. The aim of seasonal forecast informed decision making through the Decision-Making Table, is to help Vanuatu farmers to make better informed decisions about what crops and varieties to grow and how to effectively manage them under the changing climatic conditions that Vanuatu is experiencing and will continue to experience.
Finally, the GCF funded Van CIS RDP project for Vanuatu is discussed as a way forward instrument for the implementation of suggested climate services in Vanuatu. The main activities and associated outputs planned for this study have been designed specifically to address the priority climate information service needs of Vanuatu and specific target sectors, including the agriculture sector. Based on the baseline information collected in the study, Climate services can be applied and mainstreamed in Vanuatu with regard to decision-making for adaptation and resiliency planning and implementation. Thus, the climate products and services proposed by the Van CIS RDP, especially the ones for agriculture, will become the most effective and efficient climate services for agriculture in Vanuatu. The project will also feature direct engagement with and among all stakeholders, from providers to users of climate services; and thereby it shall be developed and implemented to demonstrate and evaluate best practice approaches to incorporate climate services in decision making. This is a major shift from conducting regular business to application of climate products and services to reinforce the implementation of adaptation priorities by enabling policies and appropriate institutional arrangements in each sectoral level.