연구보고서
- 저자
- 김유진 박사
- 작성일
- 2019.06.12
- 조회
- 238
- 요약
- 목차
Since its foundation, the APEC Climate Center (APCC) has worked with Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) on seasonal operational forecasts for Korea. This project, the “Development of the APCC-KMA collaboration system for improving operational long-range forecast”, was launched in 2017 to solidify the collaboration between APCC and KMA and improve the operational long-range forecast. This report is the results from the second year of this project. Therefore, we will conduct applied climate science research and provide high-quality seasonal forecast data to KMA through this project. Then APCC will participate in improving of long-range forecast for Korea.
KMA provides long-range (weekly/one month leading (sub-seasonal) and monthly/ three month leading (seasonal)) forecasts for temperature and precipitation of Korea.
Many scientists have studied climate science as a basis for improving long-range forecasts for Korea and East Asia for a long time. However, more work and process are necessary to adapt the research results to the KMA's operational long-range forecast because the target of the latter is very specific about time and area, comparing with basic climate research. Therefore, APCC strove to find an efficient method to connect basic research to operational climate forecast. This project also contains APCC's endeavor described before.
The first part of this project consists of Korean climate research based on observational data. The knowledge and understanding of real Korean climate variability in the past would help with understanding present and predicting future climate variability. One extreme case in terms of temperatures in Korean occurred in summer 2016. It is selected and studied because the related pattern differed from those in the past. The mechanisms and long-term trends in this extreme case are studied. A case study on the Korean summer/winter extreme temperature/precipitation is also conducted based on observational data.
This case study will be used by KMA to analyze the monthly Korean climate variability every month. KMA regularly distributes those analysis materials of monthly Korean climate variability to meet the demand of people. The Chapter 2 includes analysis based on observational data. The second part of this project analyzes the operational dynamical models and development of forecast skill. For the latter, we analyzed the forecast skill of operational dynamical model. A climate teleconnection mode to help the Korean precipitation monthly forecast in 2017 was found and this is the Western Pacific circulation (convection) mode. To utilize this mode stably, mechanisms related to the Western Pacific circulation mode and Korean monthly precipitation in September was elaborated in this report. Furthermore, weekly/1 month leading forecast display systems were improved this year. New content that shows a geopotential height variability of 500 hPa was applied to diversify the forecast information for sub-seasonal Korean temperature. Furthermore, the probabilistic forecast for Korean precipitation was improved when the quantile distribution was adapted. Chapter 3 analyzes the dynamical model and the improved forecast display system.
These research results will be used in real-time operational long-range climate forecasts at KMA. Ultimately, this project aims at improving long-range operational forecasts for Korea.