The goal of this project is to provide the better forecasts for BSISO. To do this, we have tried to improve the recognition of the value of BSISO data by investigating how to apply and interpret it in terms of the genesis of tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific (WNP) and the variability of temperatures, especially Korean heat waves, over the Asian monsoon region.

There were BSISO phase preferences in the genesis of tropical cyclones in the WNP region and the occurrence of heat waves in Korea. From Jul.–Oct., when BSISO1 is in phases 5, 6, and 7, and BSISO2 is in phases 8, 1, and 2, it could influence the large-scale zonal wind related to the monsoon trough, which could contribute towards creating a synoptic-scale environment favorable to the genesis of tropical cyclones in the WNP.

In terms of the heat wave that occurs in Korea in July and August, BSISO1 in phases 6, 7, 8, and 1 and BSISO2 in phases 1, 2, 3, and 4 could intensify convective activity over the western Pacific. This convection could contribute towards creating Pacific-Japan pattern and North Pacific pattern, especially east-west elongated anticyclonic circulations off the coast of East Asia and the Bering Sea, which could in turn lead to the long-lasting heat wave.

1. 서론

2. 연구 자료 및 방법

2.1 BSISO 지수

2.2 관측 자료

2.2.1 태풍 발생 자료

2.2.2 한반도 폭염 자료

2.2.3 대규모 순환장 자료

3. 연구내용

3.1 서태평양 열대 저기압 발생에 대한 BSISO 예보의 활용 가능성 평가

3.1.1 서태평양 열대 저기압의 특성

3.1.2 서태평양 열대 저기압과 BSISO 의 연관성

3.1.3 BSISO 기반 WNP ISGPI 개발

3.1.4 서태평양 열대 저기압 발생 예측에 대한 BSISO 활용 가능성

3.2 아시아 몬순 지역 기온 예측에 대한 BSISO 예보의 활용 가능성 평가

3.2.1 한반도 폭염 특성

3.2.2 한반도 폭염과 BSISO 의 연관성

3.2.3 사례분석

4. 결론 및 토의

4.1 결론

4.2 토의

4.3 성과

4.4 기대 효과

REFERENCES