The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “El Niño WATCH”. In March 2023, slightly negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the central equatorial Pacific, whereas above normal ones spanned the eastern equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index is expected to increase from 0.5℃ to 1.6℃ for May – October 2023. The probability for El Niño conditions is expected to be above 90% for the same period.
Temperature/Precipitation Forecast for May - Oct. 2023
Above normal temperatures are expected for most of the globe for May – October 2023. For the same period, strongly enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is predicted for the equatorial Pacific, whereas enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the eastern Indian Ocean, Indonesia, and the Caribbean Sea.
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APCC produces high-cost climate data and information by operating a real-time and highly-validated climate prediction system based on a multi-climate model ensemble (MME) technique. APCC also carries out research in order to enhance capacity in the monitoring and prediction of weather and climate in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.
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