The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “El Niño”. In August 2023, above normal sea surface temperature anomalies spanned the equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index is expected to be above 1.4℃ for October 2023 – March 2024. The probability for El Niño conditions is expected to be above 98% for the same period.
Temperature/Precipitation Forecast for October 2023 ~ March 2024
Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for most of the globe for October 2023 – March 2024. For the same period, above normal precipitation is predicted for the western equatorial Pacific and Eurasia, whereas below normal precipitation is expected for the central off-equatorial North Pacific and northern and western Australia.
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APCC produces high-cost climate data and information by operating a real-time and highly-validated climate prediction system based on a multi-climate model ensemble (MME) technique. APCC also carries out research in order to enhance capacity in the monitoring and prediction of weather and climate in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.
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