조지메이슨대학교 교수이자 국제적으로 저명한 과학자인 Jagadish Shukla 박사가 오는 2월 25일 APEC 기후센터(APCC)를 방문한다. Jagadish Shukla 박사는 APCC의 과학자문위원회(Science Advisory Committe)의 공동의장 역을 맡고 있다.

그는 APCC를 방문하는 기간 동안, ‘Predictability and Prediction of Monsoons in the Present and the Future Climate’라는 주제를 가지고 25일 오후 3시 30분에 APCC 2층 Edelwise 룸에서 발표를 진행한다.

Jagadish Shukla 박사의 발표 제목, abstract, 상세한 일정은 은 아래 내용을 참고하면 된다. 또한 박사의 연혁 및 주요 전문 분야 등은 첨부문서에서 확인할 수 있다.

￭ 발표자: Jagadish Shukla 교수 (조지메이슨대학교 교수, APCC 과학자문위원회 공동의장)

￭ 발표제목: Predictability and Prediction of Monsoons in the Present and the Future Climate
 

￭ 장소: APCC 2층 Edelwise Room
 

￭ 일정 (2013. 2.25)

- 세미나 발표: 15:30 PM - 17:00 PM
- 연구원과의 미팅: 17:00 PM - 18:00 PM


￭ Abstract:

This paper will review our current understanding of the processes that determine the limits of predictability of monsoon circulation and rainfall; describe the theoretical, computational, and institutional challenges in improving models and predictions; and summarize projected changes in monsoons in the future climate. The chaotic nature of the atmosphere limits the usefulness of deterministic weather prediction of to about two weeks. However, slowly varying boundary forcings at the Earth’s surface (SST, soil wetness, snow, etc.) and their interactions with the atmosphere make it possible to predict seasonal mean circulation and rainfall.

It is well known that operational forecasts of Indian monsoon rainfall for the past 100 years have had no skill because the statistical models for IMD use too many predictors, the method of choosing the predictors gives artificial predictability, and the models produce over-confident forecasts. The lack of skill in monsoon forecasts is not due to intrinsic limits of predictability, but due to inaccurate models and insufficient observations.

This paper will show that after 50 years of climate modeling, current climate models can now produce skillful forecasts of Indian monsoon rainfall. Prediction of the space-time structure of rainfall over India remains a challenge. A strong scientific basis for the dynamical prediction of monsoon rainfall has already been established, and we now have evidence that high-fidelity climate models can produce skillful monsoon forecasts. These scientific advances should be used for the benefit of society along with improving the observing system, developing scientific capacity, and building better dynamical models to produce accurate and reliable forecasts of monsoons.

* 세미나 관련 문의: APEC 기후센터 기후정책실 정승원 (051-745-3923)