Hazardous climate phenomena such as torrential downpours, tropical storms, heavy snow, drought, and cold surges have lately occurred with greater frequency as part of the impacts the impacts of global warming, causing the related socio-economic costs to soar. As the global warming intensifies, the warmer atmosphere holds more moisture that causes increased precipitation. This circulation in the atmosphere increases the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation. Observational data shows that outbreaks of high leveled storm tend to increase and are predicted to rise far more often in the future.

Accordingly, APCC commissioned a research project called ‘A Study on the Variability and Predictability of Tropical Storms and Its Future Change Due to Global Warming’, conducted by the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST). The research outcomes of this project were presented in a brief session held on June 8, 2012 in the second- floor Edelweiss Room at APCC headquarters.

Prof. Myong-In Lee from UNIST, one of the a Principal Investigators, gave a presention on “Dynamical Prediction of Tropical Storms (TS) with GCM (Global Climate Models)” and Dr. Hyemi Kim from Georgia Tech, a co-Principal Investigator, gave a report entitled “Analysis of Tropical Storm Variability”.

Prof. Myong-In Lee explained that MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis data was used to verify the performance of TS and he conducted an analysis on seasonal change and interannual variability of TS. His research shows correlation coefficient between Surface Sea Temperature (SST) and TS activity. Also, he said that compared with the observation, MERRA exhibits a reasonable climatological prediction for the TS genesis, tracks, and interannual variation. He summarized that the influence of the MJO on the genesis location and track density of TS is reasonably captured in MERRA and GEOS-5 simulations.

Dr. Sobhan Kumar Sahu of APCC inquired whether the impact of ENSO or IOD is having any effect on Tropical Cyclogenesis. Dr. Kim answered that thus far UNIST has not studied that relationship but there may be future research on that topic. Several researchers from APCC raised questions about current issues and expressed their interest in this study. This valuable study will be useful for the prediction of meteorological disasters and hazardous climate change.