The Expert Seasonal Prediction System for Seasonal Outlook in Korea (ESPreSSO-KR) is developed to provide reliable seasonal prediction. It is a hybrid dynamical-statistical system that is based on the operational APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal prediction.

It further utilizes the MME and statistical downscaling techniques that APCC has elaborated, as well as the experts’ knowledge on the climate system in Korea and its manifestation in MME prediction system. The stability and the prediction skill of the operational ESPreSSO-KR is assessed for 2017, and ESPreSSO-KR shows stable improvement of prediction skill throughout the year.

1. INTRODUCTION

2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY

2.1 ESPreSSO의 기본 가정

2.2 모형의 구성 및 구동 단계

3. EXAMPLE: ESPRESSO-KR FOR SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURE

3.1 기본 가정 적합성 여부

3.2 기후 현상에 대한 고려 1: 기술적 부분

3.3 기후 현상에 대한 고려 2: 과학적 부분

4. RESEARCH RESULTS

4.1 ESPreSSO-KR의 예측 결과

4.2 ESPreSSO-KR의 예측 성능 평가 및 검증

4.3 프로젝트의 기타 성과물

5. CONCLUDING REMARKS