A large area rice model was developed based on the existing GLAM-wheat framework to assess the impact of climate change on rice in South Korea. The newly developed GLAM-rice model can capture much of the variability of observed rice yield at the provincial level. Climate variables from the regional climate model YSU-RSM performed well in our climate impact study for South Korea, and these variables were used in the GLAM-rice model to assess the impact of climate change on rice in South Korea. Climate change could result in a 5.9 to 7.7% reduction of rice yield in South Korea by 2050. The negative impact of climate change on rice can be offset by the CO2 fertilization effect. To improve rice yield, adaptation strategies, including changes in planting dates and use of earlier and later maturing rice varieties, were implemented. Adjusting the planting dates to 20 days earlier results in only a small increase in rice yield. Use of later maturing rice can lead to 14.9 and 14.2% increases in rice yield for the rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. To improve rice yield and meet future food demands, alternative options for rice crop adaptation and the support of government policies, remain necessary for South Korea. Even if total rice production increases with adaption, it may still be insufficient to meet the requirement of an increasing population. The goal of the South Korean government is to achieve food sovereignty thus increasing total grain production and maintaining food security is a critical issue.

1. INTRODUCTION

2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY

2.1 An overview of GLAM

2.2 Development of GLAM-rice

2.3 Data source and methods

3. RESEARCH RESULTS

3.1 Rice production and the relationship between rice and climate

3.2 Validation of GLAM-rice

3.3 Future climate change and its impact on rice

3.4 Potential adaptation to climate change

4. CONCLUDING REMARKS