Rice diseases, responsible for about 8.27% of annual yield losses in Korean rice production, are likely to be affected by meteorological changes resulting from global climate change. No critical evaluation has yet been made of the impacts of climate change on rice diseases in Korea. This study involved a quantitative analysis of two key rice diseases, leaf blast and sheath blight, using a generic epidemiological model, EPIRICE. The goals of the study were to evaluate the EPIRICE model using historical rice disease incidence data and fine-scale weather data for 2002-2010 in South Korea, and then to ascertain likely changes in national disease probabilities under climate change scenarios to allow for more robust future planning. EPIRICE was calibrated and validated against observed disease incidence data for leaf blast and sheath blight. Observed and simulated epidemics for both diseases were compared using disease progress curves and the area under the disease progress curve in equivalence and envelope of acceptance tests. The level of agreement between the observed and simulated epidemics was high and the model was found to be valid according to the performance criteria. Predicted daily climate data based on the IPCC RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios were used as inputs into the EPIRICE model. Outputs from the model runs were displayed using GIS to show future changes in potential epidemics for both rice diseases. Overall epidemics of both diseases were simulated to gradually decrease towards 2100. These results can be used to interpret the likely magnitude of changes in disease risk in regions of South Korea and to estimate climate change impacts on disease losses and disease control.

1. INTRODUCTION

2. DATA AND METHODOLOGY

2.1. Research workflow

2.2. Parameterization of the EPIRICE model

2.3. Quality control of the observed field data for rice disease incidence

2.4. Model calibration, validation, and sensitivity testing

2.5. Climate data, EPIRICE runs, and mapping potential epidemics using GIS with climate data

3. RESEARCH RESULTS

3.1. Parameterization and calibration of EPIRICE

3.2. EPIRICE validation

3.3. Sensitivity of EPIRICE-LB and EPIRICE-SB

3.4. Potential epidemics of rice leaf blast and sheath blight in South Korea

4. DISCUSSION

5. CONCLUDING REMARKS