Climate Services and Research

Enhancing Climate Prediction Services through Innovative Research and Technology

Climate Prediction

Operation of Climate Prediction Systems and Provision of Climate Information Services for the Asia-Pacific Region

Climate Analysis

Monitoring and Analysis of Extreme Climate and Operational Long-Range Forecasts

Prediction Research

Development of Innovative Climate Prediction Techniques

Prediction Research

Goal

Development of multi-model based regional seasonal prediction techniques

Analysis of subseasonal variability and predictability

Development of multi-model based subseasonal prediction techniques

Basic Functions

Development of multi-model based climate prediction techniques

Diagnostics and verification of subseasonal-to-seasonal climate prediction

Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal climate predictability

Development of high-resolution, gridded climate information on a regional scale

Main Research

Seasonal prediction generally aims to predict a monthly average of the climate for the following three to six months. To generate reliable seasonal predictions, it is essential to have not only a great number and diversity of climate model predictions, but also advanced ensemble techniques, through which initial and model uncertainties can be addressed. The Prediction Research Department (PRD) analyzes the major modes of climate variability, assesses the corresponding prediction skill of global climate models, and eventually develops multi-model ensemble techniques to provide improved seasonal prediction. PRD also investigates multi-model based regional seasonal prediction techniques for the Asia-Pacific region (including South Korea).

Extreme climate events such as heat waves, cold surge, heavy rain, and droughts, have profound socio-economic impacts. These events are more often associated with atmospheric phenomena at the subseasonal timescale (a time span of about 15-60 days). With accumulated expertise in multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction, PRD is working on assessing subseasonal predictability, diagnostics, and verification of climate model subseasonal prediction, and developing multi-model based subseasonal prediction techniques. PRD also explores the application of cutting-edge technologies (for example, deep learning techniques) to climate model subseasonal prediction to improve prediction skill.

※ Climate: The average of the weather over a long period of time

※ Climate Prediction: An estimate of future state of the climate in advance (up to a month, a season, a year, or longer period of time) through statistical approaches or climate model predictions