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Outlook


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

The APCC seasonal forecast is produced through a multi-model ensemble method, utilizing climate models from 15 climate forecasting centers and institutions in 11 countries around the world. Our forecast information should be used for reference only. Please consult the respective country’s national meteorological service for the official seasonal forecast for that country.

Outlook

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Climate Outlook for February - July 2021


(Issued: 20 Jan 2021)


○ ​ The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “La Niña ALERT”. During December 2020, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index is expected to gradually increase from -1℃ to -0.17℃ for February – July 2021. Based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests a 76% probability of La Niña for February – April 2021 and a 48% probability of neutral conditions for May – July 2021.

○ ​ Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for southern USA and the Gulf of Mexico. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the Arctic, Eurasia (excluding central Russia, South Asia, and the Indochinese Peninsula), northern Africa, eastern Canada, and northeastern USA for February – July 2021.

○ ​ A tendency for above and below normal precipitation is predicted for Australia and Argentina for February – July 2021, respectively.


Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

1. Forecast for February - April 2021

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the tropical and subtropical Pacific (excluding central and eastern tropical region), Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, New Zealand, southern USA, Mexico, the Gulf of Mexico, subtropical Atlantic, and the Mediterranean Sea. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the Arctic, Eurasia (excluding central Russia and the Indochinese Peninsula), northern Africa, eastern Canada, northeastern USA, southern Brazil, and the tropical North Atlantic. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is predicted for the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is expected for northern South America and the southern South Pacific. A tendency for below normal temperatures is predicted for western Canada and Alaska. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is expected for the western tropical Pacific (excluding equatorial region), Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Indochinese Peninsula, the Philippines, and northern South America. A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for Russia, northeastern China, Canada, and Australia. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the central and eastern tropical Pacific (excluding eastern equatorial region), and the Gulf of Mexico. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the eastern subtropical Pacific, southern USA, northern Mexico, subtropical North Atlantic, tropical South Atlantic, and Central Asia (excluding northern Kazakhstan). A tendency for below normal precipitation is expected for the Middle East, southern Brazil, and Argentina. A tendency for near normal precipitation is predicted for some regions of the Sahel.

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2. Forecast for May - July 2021

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the tropical and subtropical Pacific (excluding central and eastern tropical region), southern USA, the Gulf of Mexico, and the subtropical North Atlantic. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the Arctic, Eurasia (excluding South Asia and the Indochinese Peninsula), northern Africa, eastern Canada, northern USA, and northern Mexico. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is predicted for the eastern tropical South Pacific. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is expected for the western tropical Pacific (excluding equatorial region). A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for Alaska, India, and Australia. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the western and central off-equatorial South Pacific. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the eastern subtropical South Pacific. A tendency for below normal precipitation is expected for western USA, Argentina, Central Asia (excluding northern Kazakhstan), and Southern Europe. A tendency for near normal precipitation is predicted for Saudi Arabia and some regions of northern Africa.


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