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Outlook


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

The APCC seasonal forecast is produced through a multi-model ensemble method, utilizing climate models from 15 climate forecasting centers and institutions in 11 countries around the world. Our forecast information should be used for reference only. Please consult the respective country’s national meteorological service for the official seasonal forecast for that country.

Outlook

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Climate Outlook for June - November 2021


(Issued: 20 May 2021)


○ ​The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “INACTIVE”. During April 2021, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the equatorial Pacific. The negative Niño3.4 index decreasing from -0.25℃ to -0.51℃ is expected during June – November 2021. Based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests ENSO neutral conditions with a decreasing chance from 74% to 54% during the forecast period.

○ ​Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for Eurasia (excluding India, western Russia, and Northern Europe), northwestern and Central Africa, USA, Central America, and eastern Brazil for June – November 2021.

○ ​ A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for India, and enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is expected for the eastern equatorial Pacific for June – November 2021.


Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

1. Forecast for June - August 2021

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the northern North Pacific, tropical western Pacific, subtropical central South Pacific, New Zealand, the maritime continent, northern Indian Ocean, Saudi Arabia, and the Atlantic. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the Arctic, Eurasia (excluding India, western Russia, and Northern Europe), Africa, the Indian Ocean (excluding northern region), North and Central America, and eastern Brazil. A tendency for above normal temperatures is predicted for the Antarctic, Australia, and South America (excluding eastern Brazil). Enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is expected for the eastern off-equatorial South Pacific. Enhanced probability for near normal temperatures is predicted for the central and eastern tropical North Pacific. A tendency for above normal precipitation is expected for India, Indonesia, Alaska, northern South America, and the western subtropical Pacific. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the western and central equatorial Pacific. A tendency for below normal precipitation is expected for western USA, southern South America, southern Central Asia, and Western Europe. Enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is predicted for the eastern equatorial Pacific. A tendency for near normal precipitation is expected for northern Africa and the Middle East.

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2. Forecast for September - November 2021

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the Arctic, northern North Pacific, tropical western Pacific, subtropical central South Pacific, maritime continent, northern Indian Ocean, and the subtropical Atlantic. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for Antarctic, Eurasia (excluding India), northwestern and Central Africa, New Zealand, USA, Central America, eastern Brazil, and Argentina. A tendency for above normal temperatures is predicted for Canada. Enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is expected for the eastern off-equatorial South Pacific. A tendency for near normal temperatures is predicted for the central and eastern tropical North Pacific. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is expected for the Arctic and Indonesia. A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for northern and eastern Russia, India, and eastern Australia. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the western and central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is predicted for the eastern equatorial Pacific and northeastern Africa.


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