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Outlook


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

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Climate Outlook for November 2020 - April 2021


(Issued: 20 Oct, 2020)


○ ​ During September 2020, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

○ ​ The latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests a 97% probability of La Niña with strong intensity during November 2020 – January 2021 and a 79% probability for the same conditions during February – April 2021.

○ ​ Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the western tropical Pacific (excluding equatorial regions), northern North Pacific, and the subtropical North Atlantic, whereas strongly enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is expected for the central equatorial Pacific for November 2020 – April 2021./span>

○ ​ Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is predicted for the western tropical Pacific (excluding equatorial region), whereas enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the eastern subtropical South Pacific and the northeastern subtropical Pacific for November 2020 – April 2021.


Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

1. Forecast for November 2020 - January 2021

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the Arctic, Pacific (excluding central and eastern tropical region and southern South Pacific), western and eastern Indian Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for Russia, East Asia (excluding southeastern China), USA, eastern Canada, Argentina, and the subtropical South Atlantic. A tendency for above normal temperatures is predicted for Europe (excluding Northern Europe), Central Asia, the Middle East, southern Africa, central Canada, eastern Brazil, and the Antarctic. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is expected for the central and eastern tropical Pacific. A tendency for near normal temperatures is predicted for northern South America. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is expected for the Arctic, northern North Pacific, the western subtropical South Pacific, central Russia, eastern Australia, the Philippine and South China Seas, eastern Indian Ocean, Caribbean Sea, northern South America, and the Antarctic Ocean. A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for western Australia, northern Russia, Northern Europe, and Canada. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the western and central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the eastern subtropical South Pacific, northeastern Pacific near USA, Mexico, the southern Indian Ocean, western Indian Ocean near Somalia, Middle East, and the western and southeastern China. A tendency for below normal precipitation is expected for the subtropical North Atlantic and southern South America. Enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is predicted for the eastern equatorial Pacific and the Sahel.

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2. Forecast for February - April 2021

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for western tropical Pacific (excluding equatorial region), northern North Pacific, subtropical North Atlantic, Mexico, and the Gulf of Mexico. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the Arctic, Eurasia (excluding India and the Indochinese Peninsula), the Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, subtropical South Atlantic, and USA (excluding northwestern region). A tendency for above normal temperatures is predicted for the tropical Atlantic and Canada. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is expected for the western and central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is predicted for the eastern tropical Pacific and northern South America. A tendency for near normal temperatures is expected for the western Indian Ocean near Madagascar and central South America. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is predicted for western tropical Pacific (excluding equatorial region) and northern Brazil. A tendency for above normal precipitation is expected for the Arctic, eastern Russia, and southern Canada. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the western and central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the eastern off-equatorial South Pacific, eastern subtropical South Pacific, northeastern Pacific near USA, northern Middle East, and Central Asia (excluding Kazakhstan). A tendency for below normal precipitation is predicted for the Mediterranean Sea and the subtropical North Atlantic.

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