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Outlook


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

Outlook

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Climate Outlook for June - November 2020


(Issued: 20 May, 2020)


○ ​ During April 2020, weak positive sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the equatorial Pacific.

○ ​ The latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests 62% probability for ENSO neutral conditions during June – August 2020 and 48% probability for La Niña conditions with a weak level during September – November 2020.

○ ​ Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted over the North Pacific (excluding equatorial regions), subtropical Atlantic, and the eastern Indian Ocean for June – November 2020.

○ ​ Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is predicted for southeastern Australia, whereas below normal precipitation is predicted for the eastern equatorial Atlantic and the southern Indian Ocean near Madagascar for June – November 2020.


Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

1. Forecast for June - August 2020

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the North Pacific (excluding equatorial regions), central South Pacific, maritime continent, eastern and western Indian Ocean, tropical and subtropical Atlantic. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for Eurasia (excluding India), America, Africa (excluding southern regions), northern Australia, and the Arctic and Antarctic. Enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is predicted for the eastern equatorial Pacific and the Great Australian Bight. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is expected for Australia, Indonesia, the western Indian Ocean near Madagascar, and the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the equatorial Pacific and the Philippine Sea. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the eastern equatorial Atlantic and the southern Indian Ocean near Madagascar. A trend for below normal precipitation is predicted for the eastern subtropical South Pacific and Europe (excluding Northern Europe). Enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is expected for northern North Africa.

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2. Forecast for September - November 2020

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the North Pacific (excluding equatorial and eastern subtropical regions), eastern Indian Ocean, maritime continent, subtropical Atlantic, and the Arctic. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the South Pacific (excluding equatorial and eastern subtropical regions), Eurasia (excluding India), America (excluding Brazil), northwestern and central Africa, and the Antarctic. Enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is predicted for the equatorial Pacific and the Great Australian Bight. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is expected for the Arctic, maritime continent, India, and southeastern Australia. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the western equatorial Pacific, eastern subtropical South Pacific, and the southern Indian Ocean near Madagascar. A trend for below normal precipitation is expected for Central Asia, Middle East, the Mediterranean Sea, western Indian Ocean near Somalia, and the eastern equatorial Atlantic. Enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is predicted for the eastern equatorial Pacific and the Sahel.

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