Contents Shortcut
Main Menu Shortcut

Outlook


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

The APCC seasonal forecast is produced through a multi-model ensemble method, utilizing climate models from 15 climate forecasting centers and institutions in 11 countries around the world. Our forecast information should be used for reference only. Please consult the respective country’s national meteorological service for the official seasonal forecast for that country.

Outlook

TOP

Climate Outlook for May - October 2021


(Issued: 20 Apr 2021)


○ ​The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “INACTIVE”. During March 2021, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the equatorial Pacific. The negative Niño3.4 index around -0.2℃ to -0.5℃ is expected during May – October 2021. Based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests ENSO neutral conditions with a decreasing chance from 73% to 50% during the forecast period.

○ ​Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for Eurasia (excluding India and the Indochinese Peninsula), North and Central Africa, New Zealand, and America (excluding Central and northern South America) for May – October 2021.

○ ​ A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for eastern Russia and western India, and a tendency for below normal precipitation is expected for some regions of western USA and the Caribbean Sea for August – October 2021.


Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

1. Forecast for May - July 2021

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the northern and western North Pacific, tropical and subtropical western Pacific (excluding equatorial region), maritime continent, central South Pacific, subtropical North Atlantic, and western USA. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the Arctic, Eurasia (excluding India and the Indochinese Peninsula), North and Central Africa, the Indian Ocean (excluding western region), New Zealand, eastern Canada and USA, and southern Brazil and Argentina. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is predicted for the eastern off-equatorial South Pacific. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is expected for the western subtropical Pacific. A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for eastern Russia, northeastern China, India, the Indochinese Peninsula, and northern South America. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the western and central equatorial Pacific. A tendency for below normal precipitation is predicted for USA, the northern Middle East, southern Central Asia, the western Indian Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Argentina, and southern Brazil. A tendency for near normal precipitation is expected for northern Africa and Saudi Arabia.

현재기후조건_img
현재기후조건_img

2. Forecast for August - October 2021

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the Arctic, northern North Pacific, tropical and subtropical western Pacific (excluding equatorial region), central South Pacific, maritime continent, eastern Indian Ocean, and the subtropical North Atlantic. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for Eurasia (excluding India and the Indochinese Peninsula), North and Central Africa (excluding the Sahel region), New Zealand, and America (excluding northern Brazil). Enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is predicted for the eastern off-equatorial South Pacific. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is expected for the maritime continent. A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for the Arctic, eastern Russia, western India, the eastern Indian Ocean, and southern Australia. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the western and central equatorial Pacific. A tendency for below normal precipitation is predicted for some regions of western USA, the Caribbean Sea, and Southern Africa. A tendency for near normal precipitation is expected for northern Africa and Saudi Arabia.


현재기후조건_img
현재기후조건_img