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Model Description

The information of MME prediction system history SHOW HIDE

2021
  • 2021.01 METFR joined APCC MME forecasts.
2020
  • 2020.09 Posted APCC MME seasonal forecast methodology on website.
  • 2020.02 Started providing probabilistic forecast from individual models.
2019
  • 2019.12 JAMSTEC joined APCC ENSO forecasts.
  • 2019.11 Official seasonal climate outlook release date changed from the 25th to the 20th every month.
  • 2019.09 Posted information on participating climate models in APCC MME on website.
  • 2019.06 3rd MME Model Providers' Meeting held at Central Weather Bureau (CWB).
2018
  • 2018.11 Launched new probabilistic ENSO forecasts.
2016
  • 2016.05 2nd MME Model Providers' Meeting held at APCC.
2014
  • 2014.11 Started providing verification information for real-time forecast.
  • 2014.08 1st MME Model Providers' Meeting held at APCC.
  • 2014.07 Released climate outlook for Pacific Islands.
2013
  • 2013.09 Released global 6-month MME prediction.
  • 2013.09 Launched new ENSO forecasts.
2008
  • 2008.06 Started providing hindcast verification information.
2007
  • 2007.09 Released monthly MME prediction for the next 3 months.
2006
  • 2006.09 Released seasonal 3-month MME prediction
  • 2006.09 Launched new MME probabilistic forecast.

The information of 15 climate models participating in APCC MME forecast is listed below. The information can be changed if the corresponding operational model is modified.

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 ※ Please refer to "Model History" below for the participating model's changes and improvements since 2015.​

 

 1. Forecast System:

Organization

Korea, APCC

System name

SCoPS (Seamless Coupled Prediction System)

First operational forecast run from APCC

Nov 2017 (for 2017DJFMAM)

 2. Model Description:

 ​Reference 

 Atmospheric model and resolution(top)

ECHAM5.3

 T159L31 (10hPa)

 Roeckner et al. 2003

 Ocean model and resolution

​POP2.0.1

 0.3-0.5 x 1.0 deg, L40

 Smith and Gent 2002

 Land surface model and resolution

ECHAM5.3

 

 Roeckner et al. 2003

 Sea-ice model and resolution

CICE4.1

 

 Hunke and Lipscomb 2010

 3. Initial / Boundary Condition:

 Forecast

 Hindcast

 Atmospheric initial conditions

 3D nudging CFSR

 3D nudging CFSR

 Land surface initial conditions

 Clim.

 Clim.

 Soil moisture initial conditions

 Clim.

 Clim.

 Snow initial conditions

 Clim.

 Clim.

 Ocean initial conditions

 EAKF CFSR SST & ARGO T/S

 EAKF CFSR SST & ARGO T/S​

 Sea-Ice initial conditions

 Predicted

 Predicted

 SST boundary conditions (if tier-2)

 N/A

 N/A

 4. Data Specification from APCC:

 Forecast

 Hindcast

 Initial conditions for forecast and hindcast

 1st and 5th of the month

 1st and 5th of the month​

 Ensemble size for forecast and hindcast

 10 members

 10 members

 Hindcast period(fixed or on-the-fly?)

 1982-2013(fixed)

 Forecast frequency and range(lead time)

 6 months(1-6 month lead time*)

 Spatial resolution

 2.5° x 2.5°

 List of parameter for APCC

 prec, slp, sst, t2m, t850, u200, u850, v200, v850, z500

 5. More information

 URL or Main reference

 Ham et al. (2019) Correction to: A newly developed APCC SCoPS and its prediction of East Asia seasonal climate variability, Clim Dyn, 53, 3703-3704. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04894-y​

 Focal point(name/e-mail)

 Dr. Yoo-Bin Yhang (ybyhang@apcc21.org)​

 

 * The length of time between issuance of a forecast and the occurrence of the phenomena that were predicted

   e.g. 2019 JJASON (1-6 month lead time) means 6 month forecast issued on May 2019​.​ 

 

 ​ Model History


​ Nov 2017

  : The CCSM3 was terminated and the new model, SCoPS (Seamless of Coupled Prediction System), was launched. 

    The SCoPS offered its first operational forecast for 2017DJFMAM.

 

​ Sep 2014 

  : The number of ensembles in the CCSM3 was changed from 5 to 10. 

 

 

APCC: APEC Climate Center
BCC: Beijing Climate Center
BOM: Bureau of Meteorology
CMCC: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
CWB: Central Weather Bureau
HMC: Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia
JMA: Japan Meteorological Agency
KMA: Korea Meteorological Administration
METFR: Météo-France
MSC: Meteorological Service of Canada
MGO: Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory
NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NCEP: National Centers for Environmental Prediction
PNU: Pusan National University
UKMO: United Kingdom Met Office​