Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.
Sea Surface Temperature and ENSO Outlook
for August 2020 - January 2021
(Issued: 20 Jul, 2020)
The prevailing ENSO phase is expected to be negative. Negative SST anomalies along the equatorial
Pacific are predicted during August – January 2021. Along with these spatial distributions, nine out of
eleven dynamical coupled models predict negative Niño3.4 index for the whole forecast period. As a
result, a Niño3.4 index below -0.5℃ is predicted. In summary, based on the running 3-month mean
Niño3.4 index, the APCC ENSO outlook suggests a 60% chance of La Niña conditions with weak
intensity (~43%) is dominant during August to October 2020. The chance for the conditions is likely to
persist until November 2020 to January 2021 with the same intensity (~29%).
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