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Sea Surface Temperature


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

SST

Sea Surface Temperature and ENSO Outlook

for August 2020 - January 2021

 

(Issued: 20 Jul, 2020)

 

The prevailing ENSO phase is expected to be negative. Negative SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific are predicted during August – January 2021. Along with these spatial distributions, nine out of eleven dynamical coupled models predict negative Niño3.4 index for the whole forecast period. As a result, a Niño3.4 index below -0.5℃ is predicted. In summary, based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the APCC ENSO outlook suggests a 60% chance of La Niña conditions with weak intensity (~43%) is dominant during August to October 2020. The chance for the conditions is likely to persist until November 2020 to January 2021 with the same intensity (~29%).

 

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Probability of ENSO state

MME SEASON

Spatial distribution

MME SEASON

Time-longitude Cross Section

MME

Spatial distribution

MODEL SEASON

Time-longitude Cross Section

MODEL