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Model Description

The information of BSISO prediction system history Show Hide

2020
  • 2020.05 Launched new impact anomaly forecast and monitoring information based on BSISO index
  • 2020.05 Model descriptions posted on the website.
  • 2020.05 Started providing forecast index in digital data
2016
  • 2016.07 Launched new heavy rainfall probability forecast based on BSISO index
2015
  • 2015.05 CWB joined the APCC BSISO forecast.
  • 2015.05 Started providing monitoring index in digital data
2014
  • 2014.05 Developed verification system and started providing verification for real-time forecast and cumulative forecast skill
  • 2014.05 Developed monitoring system and started providing BSISO monitoring index
2013
  • 2013.07 ECMWF joined the APCC BSISO forecast.
  • 2013.07 Launched operational Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) forecasts with BOM and NCEP models

The information of 5 models participating in APCC BSISO forecast is listed below. The information can be changed if the corresponding operational model is modified.

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※ Please refer to "Model History" below for the participating model's changes and improvements since 2015.​

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  1. Forecast System

 Organization

USA, National Centers for Environmental Prediction 

 System name

CFS (Climate Forecast System)  

 First operational forecast run from APCC

July 2013

  2. Model Description

Atmospheric model

NCEP GFS

Resolution

Horizontal

T126

Vertical (top and type)

L64

0.266 hPa

 3. Real-time forecast Configuration

Is the model coupled to an ocean model

Yes

If yes, please describe ocean model briefly including name of model, frequency of coupling, and any ensemble perturbation applied :

The oceanic component (MOM4) uses a zonal resolution of 0.5° and a meridional resolution of 0.25° between 10o S to 10o N, gradually increasing through the tropics until becoming fixed at 0.5° poleward of 30°S and 30°N, 40 vertical levels. Coupling frequency is 10 minutes between atmosphere and sea ice and 1 hour between atmosphere and ocean

Atmospheric initial conditions

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)

Ocean initial conditions

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)​ 

Forecast range

45 days

Update Forecast frequency

Daily

Ensemble size

16

How is the ensemble configured?

Initial conditions for ensemble members are created by adding small fractions (about 5%) of the differences between the initial date and previous days to CFSR analysis for atmospheric and oceanic prognostic variables.

 4. Hindcast Configuration

Hindcast Period

1999-2010

Produced on the fly or fixed?

Fixed

Update Forecast frequency

Every day starting from 1 January of each year for the period 1999- 2010.

Ensemble size

4

Atmospheric initial conditions

CFSR

Ocean initial conditions

CFSR

Is the ensemble generation the same as for real-time forecast? If not, please describe the difference : 

 The 4 daily ensemble members were initialized directly from CFSR analysis every 6 hours from 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z. 

 5. More information

Main reference or URL

 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1

Focal point (name/e-mail)

 Wassila Thiaw, Miliaritiana Robjhon, Vadlamani Kumar   wassila.thiaw@noaa.gov, miliaritiana.robjhon@noaa.gov,   vadlamani.kumar@noaa.gov

CFS : National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Climate Forecast System
GFS : National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Global Forecast System​
ECM : European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts - Ensemble Prediction System
CWB : Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau - Taiwan CWB 1-tier Global Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Forecast System 
BOM : Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator Seasonal 1