Contents Shortcut
Main Menu Shortcut

Outlook


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 25th of each month. In the case that the 25th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

Outlook

Climate Outlook for May - October 2019

 

(Issued: 25 Apr, 2019)

 

 

  • ○ During March 2019, El Niño conditions persisted with positive sea surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • ○  The latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests about 90% probability for El Niño conditions with a weak El Niño level (~53%) during May – July 2019, gradually decreasing to 70% during August – October 2019.
  • ○ Positive temperature anomalies are likely to prevail over the tropical Pacific, subtropical western South Pacific, northern North Pacific, maritime continent, tropical Atlantic, Indian Ocean except the eastern part, and southern Africa for May – October 2019.
  • ○  Below normal precipitation anomalies are expected for the maritime continent, Caribbean Sea, off-equatorial North Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean near southern Australia for May – October 2019.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: 

 

1. Forecast for May – July 2019

 

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the tropical Pacific, northeastern North Pacific, Bering Sea, Alaska, western Canada, the southwestern South Pacific, maritime continent, tropical Atlantic, northwestern North Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean (excluding the eastern part). Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the Arctic, Eurasia (excluding central Asia), Australia, and Africa. Strongly enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is predicted for the equatorial Pacific. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the Philippines, Philippine Sea, central off-equatorial North Pacific, western subtropical South Pacific, seas off the north coast of Australia, Indian Ocean near southern Australia, Caribbean Sea, and the off-equatorial North Atlantic. Enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is predicted for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, Arabian Peninsula, and southern Africa. 

 

Current Climate Conditions_img

Current Climate Conditions_img

2. Forecast for August - October 2019

 

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the tropical Pacific, northern North Pacific, southwestern South Pacific, maritime continent, tropical Atlantic, subtropical South Atlantic, northwestern North Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean (excluding the eastern part). Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the Arctic, Eurasia, Australia, Africa, and North and South America (excluding eastern USA and Argentina). Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is predicted for the central off-equatorial North Pacific and the southern South Pacific near New Zealand. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for Indonesia, the seas off the north coast of Australia, eastern Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean near southern Australia, Caribbean Sea, and the off-equatorial North Atlantic. Enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is predicted for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the Arabian Peninsula.

Current Climate Conditions_img

Current Climate Conditions_img